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Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Sao Paulo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-18.1%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Draw 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.7%

Away win 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 45.5% 2.20 +3.0%

Over 3.5 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +11.1%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 45.8% 45.5% 2.20 +0.8%

Away O1.5 20.7% 28.6% 3.50 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.5

Atletico Paranaense0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 2.12

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.12) vs P(Home)=51.2%

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +2.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.7%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 22%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sao Paulo and 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.88 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.1%.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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