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Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Sao Paulo

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home 50% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.2%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.1%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 50.0% 2.00 +0.2%

Draw 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Away win 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

Over 2.5 46.8% 42.6% 2.35 +10.0%

Over 3.5 26.9% 22.2% 4.50 +12.6%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 46.3% 43.5% 2.30 +6.5%

Away O1.5 20.1% 26.3% 3.80 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.5

Atletico Paranaense0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 2.12

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +0.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Paranaense 23%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sao Paulo and 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.88 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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