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Internacional vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Internacional

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+24.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.3%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.3%1-111.1%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.7%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 45.0% 2.22 +17.2%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 22.9% 31.3% 3.20 -16.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 32.8% 26.3% 3.80 +24.6%

BTTS 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Home O1.5 53.9% 43.5% 2.30 +24.0%

Away O1.5 25.0% 33.9% 2.95 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.8

Cruzeiro0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.22

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.22), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +17.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Cruzeiro (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cruzeiro 23%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Internacional and 0.9 for Cruzeiro (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.0%.

Internacional vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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