Today / Brazil - Serie A / Internacional vs Cruzeiro

Internacional vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Internacional

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 47% chance

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+20.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-16.5%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-111.2%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.7%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.6%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 43.1% 2.32 +22.5%

Draw 24.3% 30.3% 3.30 -11.9%

Away win 22.9% 33.3% 3.00 -18.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 28.6% 3.50 +14.8%

BTTS 52.3% 57.1% 1.75 -8.5%

Home O1.5 53.5% 44.4% 2.25 +20.4%

Away O1.5 24.7% 36.4% 2.75 -19.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.7

Cruzeiro0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.22

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +22.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.9%

Cruzeiro (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cruzeiro 23%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Internacional and 0.9 for Cruzeiro (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Internacional vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions