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Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flamengo

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-110.0%0-29.5%0-36.1%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.4%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.8%2-15.4%2-25.2%2-33.3%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 11.0% 9.10 +59.6%

Draw 21.9% 22.0% 4.55 -0.2%

Away win 56.2% 74.1% 1.35 -24.1%

Over 2.5 60.7% 55.6% 1.80 +9.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 33.3% 3.00 +12.5%

BTTS 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Home O1.5 35.0% 19.0% 5.25 +83.8%

Away O1.5 49.0% 65.4% 1.53 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense-sc1.0

Flamengo1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.78

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

57%

DANGER

xG gap -0.87 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense-sc (H) 21.9%

ODDS 9.10 · IMPLIED 11.0% EV +59.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -0.2%

Flamengo (A) 56.2%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense-sc face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense-sc a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Flamengo 56%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.9 for Flamengo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +96.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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