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Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-19.8%0-29.4%0-36.1%0-4+4.5%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.8%2-15.4%2-25.2%2-33.3%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 14.1% 7.10 +33.7%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -7.4%

Away win 56.1% 68.0% 1.47 -17.5%

Over 2.5 60.8% 54.6% 1.83 +11.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 32.3% 3.10 +16.3%

BTTS 55.4% 52.4% 1.91 +5.8%

Home O1.5 35.4% 22.2% 4.50 +59.3%

Away O1.5 48.9% 62.5% 1.60 -21.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 56% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chapecoense-sc1.1

Flamengo1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.78

FLAMENGO · PPG 1.89

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Chapecoense-sc (H) 22.0%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +33.7%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.4%

Flamengo (A) 56.1%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chapecoense-sc face Flamengo in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chapecoense-sc a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Flamengo 56%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.9 for Flamengo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for Flamengo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +59.3%.

Chapecoense-sc vs Flamengo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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