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Goias vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:30

Goias

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Sport Recife

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-113.5%0-27.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.1%2-16.7%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 45.0% 2.22 -25.2%

Draw 30.3% 31.7% 3.15 -4.6%

Away win 36.1% 30.3% 3.30 +19.1%

Over 2.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

Over 3.5 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +1.2%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 42.0% 2.38 -16.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 31.3% 3.20 +16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias1.0

Sport Recife1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.9% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 1.88

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 33.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -25.2%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -4.6%

Sport Recife (A) 36.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Sport Recife 36%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Goias and 1.1 for Sport Recife (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.50 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Goias vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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