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Lexington vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.4%0-23.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.0%1-18.9%1-26.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.2%3-16.2%3-24.6%3-32.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.0%4+-23.7%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 27.6% 26.0% 3.85 +3.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 58.8% 1.70 +13.9%

Over 3.5 44.3% 36.4% 2.75 +21.8%

BTTS 64.3% 61.7% 1.62 +4.2%

Home O1.5 58.1% 57.8% 1.73 +0.5%

Away O1.5 48.9% 35.1% 2.85 +39.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington2.0

Oakland Roots1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.43

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Oakland Roots (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Oakland Roots 28%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lexington and 1.5 for Oakland Roots (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +39.4%.

Lexington vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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