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Lexington vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.2%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.1%1-19.8%1-26.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-15.9%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.3%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 27.6% 26.0% 3.85 +3.8%

Over 2.5 63.7% 58.8% 1.70 +8.3%

Over 3.5 42.0% 36.4% 2.75 +15.5%

BTTS 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Away O1.5 41.9% 35.1% 2.85 +19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.9%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0✓ 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington1.9

Oakland Roots1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.43

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Oakland Roots (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Oakland Roots 28%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lexington and 1.4 for Oakland Roots (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.29 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Lexington vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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