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Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Operario-PR

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-13.0%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-17.3%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-17.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.6% 70.9% 1.41 -1.9%

Draw 19.4% 23.8% 4.20 -11.1%

Away win 11.0% 12.5% 8.00 -7.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 51.3% 1.95 +18.4%

Over 3.5 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%

BTTS 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Home O1.5 61.8% 61.7% 1.62 +0.1%

Away O1.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.5%

H 70% / xG 2.4-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario-PR2.4

Ponte Preta0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 2.00

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.77 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Operario-PR (H) 69.6%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -1.9%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -11.1%

Ponte Preta (A) 11.0%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario-PR face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario-PR a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Ponte Preta 11%, so Operario-PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Operario-PR and 0.6 for Ponte Preta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario-PR are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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