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Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Operario-PR

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.3%1-17.5%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.3%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-16.8%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-16.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 70.9% 1.41 -4.1%

Draw 20.8% 23.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Away win 11.2% 12.1% 8.25 -4.6%

Over 2.5 60.8% 51.3% 1.95 +18.6%

Over 3.5 37.5% 29.4% 3.40 +27.5%

BTTS 48.4% 47.6% 2.10 +1.6%

Home O1.5 62.2% 61.7% 1.62 +0.8%

Away O1.5 18.5% 18.2% 5.50 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Operario-PR2.3

Ponte Preta0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 2.00

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.38) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Operario-PR (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -4.1%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Ponte Preta (A) 11.2%

ODDS 8.25 · IMPLIED 12.1% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Operario-PR face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Operario-PR a 68% chance, the draw 21% and Ponte Preta 11%, so Operario-PR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Operario-PR and 0.6 for Ponte Preta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Operario-PR are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.38 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.5%.

Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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