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Ceara vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Ceara

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

CRB

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+18.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.0%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.4%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 26.8% 29.0% 3.45 -4.5%

Over 2.5 56.6% 47.6% 2.10 +18.9%

Over 3.5 34.9% 26.3% 3.80 +32.6%

BTTS 55.4% 54.6% 1.83 +1.4%

Home O1.5 53.9% 45.5% 2.20 +18.6%

Away O1.5 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.6

CRB1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.33

CRB · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

CRB (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 49% chance, the draw 25% and CRB 27%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Ceara and 1.2 for CRB (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.6%.

Ceara vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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