Today / Brazil - Serie B / Ceara vs CRB

Ceara vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Ceara

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

CRB

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 52% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+27.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.8%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.3%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 47.2% 2.12 +2.8%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 26.9% 29.0% 3.45 -4.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 47.6% 2.10 +27.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 26.3% 3.80 +39.8%

BTTS 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 45.5% 2.20 +17.7%

Away O1.5 36.9% 31.3% 3.20 +18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.7

CRB1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.33

CRB · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

52%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +2.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

CRB (A) 26.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 49% chance, the draw 25% and CRB 27%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ceara and 1.3 for CRB (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Ceara vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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