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Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Coritiba

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Palmeiras

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-113.2%0-27.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-16.8%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.3%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 24.4% 4.10 +49.6%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 35.3% 52.6% 1.90 -32.9%

Over 2.5 49.7% 45.5% 2.20 +9.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 35.4% 26.7% 3.75 +32.8%

Away O1.5 36.3% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.0

Palmeiras1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.50

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 36.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +49.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

Palmeiras (A) 35.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Palmeiras 35%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Coritiba and 1.2 for Palmeiras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.6%.

Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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