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Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 22:30

Coritiba

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Palmeiras

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-113.1%0-27.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.7%2-16.8%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 21.5% 4.65 +70.2%

Draw 28.0% 29.0% 3.45 -2.0%

Away win 35.4% 56.5% 1.77 -37.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.3% 50.0% 2.00 +4.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 25.0% 4.00 +40.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 48.8% 2.05 -25.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.0%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coritiba1.0

Palmeiras1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORITIBA · PPG 1.50

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Coritiba (H) 36.6%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +70.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.0%

Palmeiras (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coritiba face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coritiba a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Palmeiras 35%, so Coritiba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Coritiba and 1.2 for Palmeiras (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coritiba are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +40.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Coritiba vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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