Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Lillestrom vs Viking

Lillestrom vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 11 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 17:00

Lillestrom

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Viking

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.9%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 34.7% 2.88 +31.6%

Draw 26.5% 27.0% 3.70 -1.2%

Away win 27.8% 45.5% 2.20 -23.3%

Over 2.5 51.1% 64.5% 1.55 -20.8%

Over 3.5 29.6% 42.6% 2.35 -18.3%

BTTS 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Home O1.5 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 54.6% 1.83 -33.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom1.4

Viking1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.00

VIKING · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +31.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.2%

Viking (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Viking 28%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lillestrom and 1.1 for Viking (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Viking. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Lillestrom vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions