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Lillestrom vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 17:00

Lillestrom

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viking

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.9%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.9%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 33.9% 2.95 +34.5%

Draw 26.6% 27.0% 3.70 -0.9%

Away win 27.8% 46.5% 2.15 -24.1%

Over 2.5 51.2% 64.5% 1.55 -20.6%

Over 3.5 29.8% 42.6% 2.35 -18.0%

BTTS 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Home O1.5 45.8% 46.5% 2.15 -1.5%

Away O1.5 36.3% 55.6% 1.80 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillestrom1.4

Viking1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLESTROM · PPG 2.00

VIKING · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Lillestrom (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +34.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.9%

Viking (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillestrom face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillestrom a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Viking 28%, so Lillestrom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lillestrom and 1.1 for Viking (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillestrom are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Viking. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.5%.

Lillestrom vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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