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Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 17:00

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ham-Kam

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 85% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.1%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.2%1-13.8%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-16.5%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-17.6%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.4%4+-116.1%4+-25.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 90.1% 1.11 -18.6%

Draw 17.3% 11.9% 8.40 +27.2%

Away win 9.5% 5.0% 20.00 +54.0%

Over 2.5 67.5% 80.0% 1.25 -15.6%

Over 3.5 49.6% 60.6% 1.65 -18.2%

BTTS 52.3% 51.8% 1.93 +0.9%

Home O1.5 77.3% 87.7% 1.14 -11.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 18.2% 5.50 +6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 73% / xG 3.5-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 10.6%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 4–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodo/Glimt3.5

Ham-Kam0.7

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.50

HAM-KAM · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

85%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.76 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bodo/Glimt (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -18.6%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +27.2%

Ham-Kam (A) 9.5%

ODDS 20.00 · IMPLIED 5.0% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodo/Glimt face Ham-Kam in Norway - Eliteserien on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Ham-Kam 10%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.7 for Ham-Kam (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.60 for Ham-Kam. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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