Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Kapaz vs Imisli

Kapaz vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 11:30

Kapaz

PPG 0.77 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Imisli

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-115.3%0-28.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.2%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.4%2-15.9%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 43.5% 2.30 -33.5%

Draw 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away win 40.3% 33.9% 2.95 +18.9%

Over 2.5 31.5% 45.5% 2.20 -30.7%

Over 3.5 13.7% 25.0% 4.00 -45.2%

BTTS 38.8% 54.1% 1.85 -28.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob38.8%

A 40% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 15.3%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz0.9

Imisli1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 0.77

IMISLI · PPG 1.29

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -33.5%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.2%

Imisli (A) 40.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Imisli in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Imisli 40%, so Imisli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Kapaz and 1.1 for Imisli (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 0.77 points per game versus 1.29 for Imisli. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Kapaz vs Imisli Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Predictions