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South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Semi-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 2.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Kingborough Lions

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.3%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.3%1-16.2%1-25.7%1-33.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.6%2-27.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.4%3-16.2%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-16.8%4+-26.3%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Draw 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Away win 33.4% 30.3% 3.30 +10.2%

Over 2.5 72.0% 69.4% 1.44 +3.7%

Over 3.5 51.5% 50.0% 2.00 +3.0%

BTTS 69.5% 69.4% 1.44 +0.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 64.1% 1.56 +2.6%

Away O1.5 56.8% 45.7% 2.19 +24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.5%

H 46% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 1–2 5.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart2.5

Kingborough Lions1.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.70

KINGBOROUGH LIONS · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.8%

Kingborough Lions (A) 33.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Kingborough Lions in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 47% chance, the draw 20% and Kingborough Lions 33%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for South Hobart and 1.8 for Kingborough Lions (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 2.70 points per game versus 1.80 for Kingborough Lions. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +24.4%.

South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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