Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / South Hobart vs Devonport City

South Hobart vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Final ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 03:00

South Hobart

PPG 2.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Devonport City

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+11.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.0%0-22.1%0-31.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-02.4%1-15.1%1-25.3%1-33.7%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.5%2-26.8%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.7%3-15.6%3-25.8%3-34.1%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-16.6%4+-26.9%4+-34.8%4+-4+4.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 57.8% 1.73 -21.6%

Draw 19.0% 26.3% 3.80 -16.7%

Away win 35.7% 26.3% 3.80 +35.7%

Over 2.5 77.4% 69.4% 1.44 +11.5%

Over 3.5 56.6% 50.5% 1.98 +12.1%

BTTS 69.7% 71.4% 1.40 -2.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 68.0% 1.47 -2.5%

Away O1.5 58.6% 43.7% 2.29 +34.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.7%

H 45% / xG 2.6-2.1 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.8%

#2 2–1 6.5%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart2.6

Devonport City2.1

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.73

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.6%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.7%

Devonport City (A) 35.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +35.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Devonport City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 45% chance, the draw 19% and Devonport City 36%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for South Hobart and 2.1 for Devonport City (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 2.73 points per game versus 2.40 for Devonport City. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +76.2%.

South Hobart vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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