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Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 06:45

Launceston City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.5%0-23.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.0%1-18.6%1-27.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.1%3-15.4%3-24.6%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.0%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 54.6% 1.83 -19.3%

Draw 22.1% 22.2% 4.50 -0.3%

Away win 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Over 3.5 43.0% 62.5% 1.60 -31.2%

BTTS 63.3% 80.0% 1.25 -20.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 71.9% 1.39 -24.1%

Away O1.5 47.7% 55.9% 1.79 -14.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.3%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston City1.9

Clarence Zebras1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON CITY · PPG 1.67

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Launceston City (H) 44.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -0.3%

Clarence Zebras (A) 33.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston City face Clarence Zebras in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston City a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Clarence Zebras 34%, so Launceston City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Launceston City and 1.7 for Clarence Zebras (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.56 for Clarence Zebras.

Launceston City vs Clarence Zebras Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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