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Tigres UANL vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

Tigres UANL

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

UPCOMING

Necaxa

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.8%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.3%1-18.7%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.4%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-17.1%4+-23.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 64.5% 1.55 -11.2%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 21.4% 20.8% 4.80 +1.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 61.7% 1.62 -0.9%

Over 3.5 39.9% 40.0% 2.50 -0.3%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 28.6% 3.50 +13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres UANL2.3

Necaxa1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES UANL · PPG 1.92

NECAXA · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tigres UANL (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.2%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

Necaxa (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres UANL face Necaxa in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres UANL a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Necaxa 21%, so Tigres UANL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tigres UANL and 1.0 for Necaxa (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres UANL are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.85 for Necaxa. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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