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Atlas W vs Guadalajara W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 02:06

Atlas W

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Guadalajara W

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.8%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 16.7% 6.00 +111.8%

Draw 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Away win 41.5% 71.4% 1.40 -41.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 40.3% 42.0% 2.38 -4.1%

BTTS 63.1% 58.8% 1.70 +7.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 25.0% 4.00 +59.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 69.4% 1.44 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.1%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas W1.5

Guadalajara W1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS W · PPG 1.44

GUADALAJARA W · PPG 1.55

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlas W (H) 35.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +111.8%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Guadalajara W (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas W face Guadalajara W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas W a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Guadalajara W 42%, so Guadalajara W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atlas W and 1.7 for Guadalajara W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas W are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.55 for Guadalajara W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +86.4%. This match finished 0-4.

Atlas W vs Guadalajara W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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