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Club America vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

Club America

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Club Tijuana

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Home 61% chance

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-16.4%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-111.0%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.4%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Draw 24.4% 25.6% 3.90 -2.9%

Away win 21.7% 17.9% 5.60 +12.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Away O1.5 21.4% 26.3% 3.80 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 12.3%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club America1.7

Club Tijuana0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB AMERICA · PPG 2.27

CLUB TIJUANA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club America (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.9%

Club Tijuana (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club America face Club Tijuana in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club America a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Club Tijuana 22%, so Club America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Club America and 0.8 for Club Tijuana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club America are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.11 for Club Tijuana.

Club America vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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