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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDL

UPCOMING

Leon

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.2%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-111.7%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 50.8% 1.97 -8.4%

Draw 24.2% 28.2% 3.55 -8.5%

Away win 29.3% 27.8% 3.60 +3.3%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.6% 1.83 -7.4%

Over 3.5 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 51.8% 1.93 -7.2%

Away O1.5 29.3% 34.7% 2.88 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.6

Leon1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 1.21

LEON · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -8.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.5%

Leon (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Leon in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Leon 29%, so U.N.A.M. - Pumas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.0 for Leon (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.09 for Leon.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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