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Monterrey W vs Toluca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

Monterrey W

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Toluca W

PPG 2.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.3%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.1%1-19.9%1-26.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.2%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Draw 23.2% 28.6% 3.50 -11.3%

Away win 28.7% 27.8% 3.60 +2.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% 45.5% 2.20 -11.1%

BTTS 61.9% 66.7% 1.50 -7.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 63.3% 1.58 -11.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.5% 2.30 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.9%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterrey W1.9

Toluca W1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTERREY W · PPG 1.87

TOLUCA W · PPG 2.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monterrey W (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.3%

Toluca W (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterrey W face Toluca W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterrey W a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Toluca W 29%, so Monterrey W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Monterrey W and 1.4 for Toluca W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterrey W are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 2.02 for Toluca W. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.4%.

Monterrey W vs Toluca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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