Today / Mexico - Liga MX / Atlas vs Atlante FC

Atlas vs Atlante FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 03:00

Atlas

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Atlante FC

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.8%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.5%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Away win 25.2% 29.4% 3.40 -8.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.4% 1.91 -4.7%

Away O1.5 33.1% 33.3% 3.00 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas1.7

Atlante FC1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS · PPG 1.34

ATLANTE FC · PPG 1.31

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas (H) 50.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -1.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Atlante FC (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas face Atlante FC in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Atlante FC 25%, so Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atlas and 1.1 for Atlante FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.31 for Atlante FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Atlas vs Atlante FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX Predictions