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Puebla vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 01:00

Puebla

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Toluca

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.8%0-27.3%0-33.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.2%1-112.1%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.0%2-17.4%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 22.7% 4.40 +35.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 45.0% 59.2% 1.69 -23.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 64.5% 1.55 -16.6%

Over 3.5 32.4% 42.6% 2.35 -23.9%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 34.0% 36.4% 2.75 -6.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 63.7% 1.57 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla1.2

Toluca1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA · PPG 1.38

TOLUCA · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puebla (H) 30.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +35.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Toluca (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla face Toluca in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Toluca 45%, so Toluca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Puebla and 1.5 for Toluca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.82 for Toluca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.0%.

Puebla vs Toluca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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