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FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 03:00

FC Juarez

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

CF Pachuca

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.2%0-27.4%0-34.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.4%2-17.2%2-25.8%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.9%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 27.4% 3.65 +4.2%

Draw 23.6% 29.0% 3.45 -11.2%

Away win 47.1% 50.3% 1.99 -6.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 54.1% 1.85 +10.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

BTTS 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Home O1.5 36.9% 34.7% 2.88 +6.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.0%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Juarez1.3

CF Pachuca1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JUAREZ · PPG 0.93

CF PACHUCA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Juarez (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.2%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.2%

CF Pachuca (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.99 · IMPLIED 50.3% EV -6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Juarez face CF Pachuca in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Juarez a 29% chance, the draw 24% and CF Pachuca 47%, so CF Pachuca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Juarez and 1.6 for CF Pachuca (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Juarez are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.38 for CF Pachuca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

FC Juarez vs CF Pachuca Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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