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Tijuana W vs Pachuca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:06

Tijuana W

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Pachuca W

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.8%0-25.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.6%1-110.6%1-28.5%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.3%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.7%3-14.3%3-23.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.4%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 19.0% 5.25 +102.1%

Draw 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -4.5%

Away win 37.9% 67.6% 1.48 -43.9%

Over 2.5 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Over 3.5 40.2% 44.4% 2.25 -9.6%

BTTS 62.5% 59.9% 1.67 +4.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 32.9% 3.04 +40.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 69.0% 1.45 -30.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 19%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tijuana W1.6

Pachuca W1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TIJUANA W · PPG 1.43

PACHUCA W · PPG 1.31

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tijuana W (H) 38.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +102.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -4.5%

Pachuca W (A) 37.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tijuana W face Pachuca W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tijuana W a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Pachuca W 38%, so Tijuana W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tijuana W and 1.6 for Pachuca W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tijuana W are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.31 for Pachuca W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +86.9%.

Tijuana W vs Pachuca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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