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Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 00:35

Vila Nova

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fortaleza EC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 46% chance

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.4%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.3%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.4%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 41.0% 2.44 +21.3%

Draw 26.6% 34.0% 2.94 -13.1%

Away win 23.7% 32.3% 3.10 -15.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 44.4% 2.25 +12.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 39.2% 2.55 +18.1%

Away O1.5 21.5% 33.3% 3.00 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.3%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.5

Fortaleza EC0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.50

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV +21.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -13.1%

Fortaleza EC (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Fortaleza EC 24%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Vila Nova and 0.9 for Fortaleza EC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Fortaleza EC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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