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Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 00:35

Vila Nova

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza EC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.6%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-18.9%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 23.7% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 48.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.4

Fortaleza EC0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.50

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza EC (A) 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Fortaleza EC 24%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vila Nova and 0.8 for Fortaleza EC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Fortaleza EC.

Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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