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Tecnico Universitario vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

Tecnico Universitario

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

LDU de Quito

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-115.0%0-27.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-16.0%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.8%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 26.3% 3.80 +31.5%

Draw 30.8% 29.9% 3.35 +3.2%

Away win 34.6% 51.0% 1.96 -32.2%

Over 2.5 40.2% 47.6% 2.10 -15.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 29.4% 3.40 +4.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 47.6% 2.10 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 125 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 31% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–1 15.0%

#4 1–1 13.4%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tecnico Universitario0.9

LDU de Quito0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TECNICO UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.36

LDU DE QUITO · PPG 1.43

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tecnico Universitario (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.5%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +3.2%

LDU de Quito (A) 34.6%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tecnico Universitario face LDU de Quito in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tecnico Universitario a 35% chance, the draw 31% and LDU de Quito 35%, so Tecnico Universitario are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tecnico Universitario and 0.9 for LDU de Quito (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tecnico Universitario are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.43 for LDU de Quito. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Tecnico Universitario vs LDU de Quito Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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