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El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Relegation Group · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:00

El Nacional

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU Portoviejo

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-113.3%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.2%2-16.6%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.7%3-12.2%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 34.7% 2.88 +1.7%

Draw 31.4% 34.7% 2.88 -9.6%

Away win 33.4% 41.7% 2.40 -19.8%

Over 2.5 34.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 28.6% 3.50 -21.8%

BTTS 42.4% 52.4% 1.91 -19.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.8% 2.72 -16.2%

Away O1.5 23.5% 41.7% 2.40 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.4%

D 31% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 0–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 1–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Nacional1.0

LDU Portoviejo0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EL NACIONAL · PPG 0.64

LDU PORTOVIEJO · PPG 0.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 1.80 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Nacional (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +1.7%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.6%

LDU Portoviejo (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Nacional face LDU Portoviejo in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Nacional a 35% chance, the draw 31% and LDU Portoviejo 33%, so El Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for El Nacional and 0.8 for LDU Portoviejo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Nacional are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.50 for LDU Portoviejo.

El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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