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22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Relegation Group · Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 20:30

22 de Julio

PPG 0.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gualaceo SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.6%0-120.1%0-29.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-112.1%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.7%2-13.7%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.0% 21.1% 4.75 +5.5%

Draw 30.4% 32.3% 3.10 -5.8%

Away win 46.6% 57.8% 1.73 -19.4%

Over 2.5 34.6% 45.5% 2.20 -23.9%

Over 3.5 18.1% 23.8% 4.20 -14.4%

BTTS 41.7% 48.8% 2.05 -14.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 22.2% 4.50 +38.6%

Away O1.5 28.1% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob41.7%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.1%

#2 0–0 20.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 12.1%

#5 0–2 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

22 de Julio0.6

Gualaceo SC1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

22 DE JULIO · PPG 0.92

GUALACEO SC · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.38, combined xG 1.58 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

22 de Julio (H) 23.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.5%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.8%

Gualaceo SC (A) 46.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

22 de Julio face Gualaceo SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives 22 de Julio a 23% chance, the draw 30% and Gualaceo SC 47%, so Gualaceo SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for 22 de Julio and 1.0 for Gualaceo SC (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, 22 de Julio are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.00 for Gualaceo SC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +38.6%.

22 de Julio vs Gualaceo SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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