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Ind. Juniors vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Promotion Group · Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:15

Ind. Juniors

PPG 2.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+10.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-15.3%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.8%1-19.4%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.7%2-18.3%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-14.9%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-13.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Draw 24.5% 33.3% 3.00 -15.9%

Away win 16.0% 25.6% 3.90 -22.6%

Over 2.5 47.8% 45.5% 2.20 +5.2%

Over 3.5 26.4% 26.0% 3.85 +1.0%

BTTS 43.8% 52.4% 1.91 -16.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 48.1% 2.08 +3.8%

Away O1.5 14.0% 26.7% 3.75 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.8%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 2–0 15.7%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ind. Juniors1.8

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IND. JUNIORS · PPG 2.09

DEPORTIVO CUENCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ind. Juniors (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +10.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.9%

Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (A) 16.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ind. Juniors face Deportivo Cuenca Juniors in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ind. Juniors a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Deportivo Cuenca Juniors 16%, so Ind. Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ind. Juniors and 0.5 for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ind. Juniors are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.45 for Deportivo Cuenca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +24.3%.

Ind. Juniors vs Deportivo Cuenca Juniors Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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