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Independiente del Valle vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Independiente del Valle

PPG 2.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

UPCOMING

Macara

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.3%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-17.9%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-19.3%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Draw 19.3% 27.8% 3.60 -18.3%

Away win 21.8% 18.2% 5.50 +11.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 55.6% 1.80 +23.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 36.4% 2.75 +23.8%

BTTS 61.5% 55.6% 1.80 +10.7%

Home O1.5 66.3% 61.7% 1.62 +7.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 23.8% 4.20 +36.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 59% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–2 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente del Valle2.6

Macara1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE · PPG 2.29

MACARA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente del Valle (H) 58.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -11.8%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -18.3%

Macara (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente del Valle face Macara in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente del Valle a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Macara 22%, so Independiente del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Independiente del Valle and 1.1 for Macara (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente del Valle are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.50 for Macara. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.5%.

Independiente del Valle vs Macara Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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