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Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:00

Delfin SC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

UPCOMING

Universidad Catolica

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-117.4%0-28.4%0-32.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.5%1-113.0%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.0%2-14.9%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.2%3-11.2%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Draw 31.4% 31.3% 3.20 +0.5%

Away win 41.5% 50.0% 2.00 -17.0%

Over 2.5 38.8% 48.1% 2.08 -19.3%

Over 3.5 18.5% 26.7% 3.75 -18.4%

BTTS 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.0% 3.23 -0.5%

Away O1.5 26.7% 45.7% 2.19 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.3%

A 42% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.4%

#2 0–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin SC0.7

Universidad Catolica1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN SC · PPG 1.50

UNIVERSIDAD CATOLICA · PPG 1.07

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.22, combined xG 1.71 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Delfin SC (H) 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.5%

Universidad Catolica (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin SC face Universidad Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin SC a 27% chance, the draw 31% and Universidad Catolica 42%, so Universidad Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Delfin SC and 1.0 for Universidad Catolica (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin SC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.07 for Universidad Catolica.

Delfin SC vs Universidad Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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