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Ekranas vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Ekranas

PPG 0.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

UPCOMING

Garliava

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.6%0-28.7%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.2%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.7%2-16.5%2-24.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 27.0% 3.70 +2.2%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 46.3% 57.8% 1.73 -19.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 30.5% 36.4% 2.75 -16.1%

BTTS 52.9% 60.2% 1.66 -12.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 57.8% 1.73 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 84 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 1–2 8.8%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 0–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekranas1.0

Garliava1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EKRANAS · PPG 0.64

GARLIAVA · PPG 0.70

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.37, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ekranas (H) 28.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

Garliava (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekranas face Garliava in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekranas a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Garliava 46%, so Garliava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ekranas and 1.4 for Garliava (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekranas are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.70 for Garliava.

Ekranas vs Garliava Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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