Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Minija vs Transinvest 2

Minija vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Minija

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Transinvest 2

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.4%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.1%1-11.7%1-20.4%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-06.8%2-13.7%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.0%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-037.6%4+-120.4%4+-25.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.0% 87.7% 1.14 -7.7%

Draw 11.4% 14.8% 6.75 -13.8%

Away win 7.6% 8.0% 12.50 -3.0%

Over 2.5 77.4% 74.1% 1.35 +4.5%

Over 3.5 56.6% 52.9% 1.89 +7.0%

BTTS 49.9% 49.0% 2.04 +1.8%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 14.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob49.9%

H 81% / xG 4.4-0.5 / O2.5 77% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 11.1%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 5–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 1–1 1.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minija4.4

Transinvest 20.5

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

TRANSINVEST 2 · PPG 0.82

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.89 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.82 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Minija (H) 81.0%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -7.7%

Draw 11.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV -13.8%

Transinvest 2 (A) 7.6%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minija face Transinvest 2 in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minija a 81% chance, the draw 11% and Transinvest 2 8%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Minija and 0.5 for Transinvest 2 (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minija are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.82 for Transinvest 2. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +32.7%.

Minija vs Transinvest 2 Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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