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Atmosfera vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Atmosfera

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

UPCOMING

Tauras

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.3%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.5%1-112.4%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

Draw 25.5% 29.0% 3.45 -7.2%

Away win 37.9% 44.4% 2.25 -14.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.0% 1.45 -22.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 46.7% 2.14 -32.4%

BTTS 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Home O1.5 39.0% 52.9% 1.89 -26.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.1% 1.75 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -40.3%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atmosfera1.3

Tauras1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATMOSFERA · PPG 1.09

TAURAS · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atmosfera (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.2%

Tauras (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atmosfera face Tauras in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atmosfera a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Tauras 38%, so Tauras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Atmosfera and 1.3 for Tauras (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atmosfera are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.36 for Tauras.

Atmosfera vs Tauras Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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