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Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Club Tijuana U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Guadalajara Chivas U21

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Club Tijuana U21

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.8%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.4%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.7%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 45.5% 2.20 +4.3%

Draw 28.2% 30.3% 3.30 -4.2%

Away win 24.3% 36.4% 2.75 -19.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.6% 3.90 -11.8%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 41.2% 2.43 -2.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 34.1% 2.93 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guadalajara Chivas U211.4

Club Tijuana U210.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 · PPG 1.66

CLUB TIJUANA U21 · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guadalajara Chivas U21 (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +4.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.2%

Club Tijuana U21 (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guadalajara Chivas U21 face Club Tijuana U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guadalajara Chivas U21 a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Club Tijuana U21 24%, so Guadalajara Chivas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Guadalajara Chivas U21 and 0.8 for Club Tijuana U21 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guadalajara Chivas U21 are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 0.96 for Club Tijuana U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Guadalajara Chivas U21 vs Club Tijuana U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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