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UNAM Pumas U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:00

UNAM Pumas U21

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Necaxa U21

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-110.5%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.9% 2.71 -16.3%

BTTS 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Home O1.5 54.4% 56.8% 1.76 -4.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 33.8% 2.96 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNAM Pumas U211.8

Necaxa U210.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNAM PUMAS U21 · PPG 1.70

NECAXA U21 · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UNAM Pumas U21 (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -5.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Necaxa U21 (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNAM Pumas U21 face Necaxa U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNAM Pumas U21 a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Necaxa U21 22%, so UNAM Pumas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for UNAM Pumas U21 and 0.8 for Necaxa U21 (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNAM Pumas U21 are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.04 for Necaxa U21. This match finished 0-1.

UNAM Pumas U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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