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Juarez U21 vs Pachuca U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Juarez U21

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

UPCOMING

Pachuca U21

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-111.8%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 44.4% 2.25 -10.7%

Draw 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away win 29.4% 36.4% 2.75 -11.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.8% 2.05 -12.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.2% 3.42 -17.1%

BTTS 48.0% 55.9% 1.79 -14.1%

Home O1.5 31.2% 43.1% 2.32 -27.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.8% 2.72 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juarez U211.1

Pachuca U210.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAREZ U21 · PPG 1.60

PACHUCA U21 · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juarez U21 (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.4%

Pachuca U21 (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juarez U21 face Pachuca U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juarez U21 a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Pachuca U21 29%, so Juarez U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Juarez U21 and 0.9 for Pachuca U21 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juarez U21 are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Pachuca U21.

Juarez U21 vs Pachuca U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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