Today / Mexico - Liga MX U21 / Necaxa U21 vs Cruz Azul U21

Necaxa U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:00

Necaxa U21

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cruz Azul U21

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.5%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.5%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 32.5% 44.4% 2.25 -26.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 35.8% 2.79 -12.0%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 37.7% 43.1% 2.32 -12.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 47.8% 2.09 -31.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 2–1✓ 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Necaxa U211.3

Cruz Azul U211.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NECAXA U21 · PPG 1.03

CRUZ AZUL U21 · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Necaxa U21 (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +5.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Cruz Azul U21 (A) 32.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Necaxa U21 face Cruz Azul U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Necaxa U21 a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Cruz Azul U21 33%, so Necaxa U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Necaxa U21 and 1.2 for Cruz Azul U21 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Necaxa U21 are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.15 for Cruz Azul U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Necaxa U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga MX U21 Predictions