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Pachuca U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:15

Pachuca U21

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDD

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas U21

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-18.6%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.3%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-18.8%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.3%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 50.0% 2.00 -4.8%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 24.6% 24.4% 4.10 +0.5%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.2% 2.21 -11.4%

Away O1.5 23.4% 27.5% 3.64 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pachuca U211.4

Guadalajara Chivas U210.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PACHUCA U21 · PPG 1.62

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS U21 · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pachuca U21 (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -4.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Guadalajara Chivas U21 (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pachuca U21 face Guadalajara Chivas U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pachuca U21 a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Guadalajara Chivas U21 24%, so Pachuca U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Pachuca U21 and 0.8 for Guadalajara Chivas U21 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pachuca U21 are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.48 for Guadalajara Chivas U21. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%.

Pachuca U21 vs Guadalajara Chivas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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