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Atlas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Atlas U21

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Queretaro U21

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.2%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.3%1-111.6%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.1% 2.08 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.9% 3.04 -7.6%

BTTS 52.4% 55.2% 1.81 -5.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.1% 1.75 -14.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 27.5% 3.64 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0✓ 11.6%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas U211.6

Queretaro U210.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS U21 · PPG 1.68

QUERETARO U21 · PPG 0.65

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas U21 (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Queretaro U21 (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas U21 face Queretaro U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas U21 a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Queretaro U21 23%, so Atlas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlas U21 and 0.8 for Queretaro U21 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas U21 are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 0.65 for Queretaro U21. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Atlas U21 vs Queretaro U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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