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Club Leon U21 vs Monterrey U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Club Leon U21

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Monterrey U21

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+27.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.1%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.9%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.0%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 40.0% 2.50 +17.3%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 28.8% 41.7% 2.40 -18.5%

Over 2.5 59.2% 46.5% 2.15 +27.3%

Over 3.5 36.0% 26.0% 3.84 +38.2%

BTTS 54.7% 54.1% 1.85 +1.2%

Home O1.5 48.8% 38.3% 2.61 +27.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.3% 2.61 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Leon U211.8

Monterrey U211.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB LEON U21 · PPG 1.71

MONTERREY U21 · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Leon U21 (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +17.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Monterrey U21 (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Leon U21 face Monterrey U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Leon U21 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Monterrey U21 29%, so Club Leon U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Club Leon U21 and 1.2 for Monterrey U21 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Leon U21 are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.59 for Monterrey U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +50.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Club Leon U21 vs Monterrey U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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