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Santos Laguna U21 vs Tigres UANL U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Santos Laguna U21

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Tigres UANL U21

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 42.0% — a clear edge.

+30.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.4%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.0%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.1%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 42.0% 2.38 +30.4%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 21.3% 40.8% 2.45 -28.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.5% 3.08 -7.0%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 40.7% 2.46 +20.3%

Away O1.5 23.1% 44.4% 2.25 -28.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.1%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos Laguna U211.7

Tigres UANL U210.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS LAGUNA U21 · PPG 1.35

TIGRES UANL U21 · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santos Laguna U21 (H) 54.8%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +30.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Tigres UANL U21 (A) 21.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos Laguna U21 face Tigres UANL U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos Laguna U21 a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Tigres UANL U21 21%, so Santos Laguna U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Santos Laguna U21 and 0.8 for Tigres UANL U21 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos Laguna U21 are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.86 for Tigres UANL U21. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +38.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Santos Laguna U21 vs Tigres UANL U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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