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Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Kokand-1912

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

UPCOMING

Dinamo Samarqand

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-19.8%0-26.4%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.7%1-112.6%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.7%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 38.2% 2.62 +0.9%

Draw 26.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.3%

Away win 35.5% 40.0% 2.50 -11.3%

Over 2.5 50.9% 48.1% 2.08 +5.9%

Over 3.5 31.1% 29.2% 3.42 +6.4%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 39.8% 2.51 -3.6%

Away O1.5 40.0% 39.4% 2.54 +1.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kokand-19121.3

Dinamo Samarqand1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KOKAND-1912 · PPG 1.33

DINAMO SAMARQAND · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kokand-1912 (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +0.9%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.3%

Dinamo Samarqand (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kokand-1912 face Dinamo Samarqand in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kokand-1912 a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Dinamo Samarqand 36%, so Kokand-1912 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kokand-1912 and 1.3 for Dinamo Samarqand (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kokand-1912 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Dinamo Samarqand. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.9%.

Kokand-1912 vs Dinamo Samarqand Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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