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Bunyodkor vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 13:00

Bunyodkor

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Surkhon

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.1%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.1%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.4%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Draw 27.5% 33.3% 3.00 -10.5%

Away win 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 38.4% 46.7% 2.14 -17.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.8% 2.58 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bunyodkor1.3

Surkhon1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BUNYODKOR · PPG 0.67

SURKHON · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bunyodkor (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -10.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.5%

Surkhon (A) 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bunyodkor face Surkhon in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bunyodkor a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Surkhon 31%, so Bunyodkor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bunyodkor and 1.0 for Surkhon (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bunyodkor are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.22 for Surkhon.

Bunyodkor vs Surkhon Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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