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Navbahor vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 14:00

Navbahor

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+32.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.0%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.4%1-19.9%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.1%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 61.7% 1.62 -15.8%

Draw 22.4% 30.3% 3.30 -15.7%

Away win 25.7% 20.8% 4.80 +14.0%

Over 2.5 63.3% 47.6% 2.10 +32.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 31.3% 3.20 +28.6%

BTTS 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 54.1% 1.85 +3.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 27.3% 3.66 +21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navbahor2.0

Lokomotiv1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.89

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Navbahor (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.7%

Lokomotiv (A) 25.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Navbahor face Lokomotiv in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navbahor a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Lokomotiv 26%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Navbahor and 1.2 for Lokomotiv (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navbahor are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.30 for Lokomotiv. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.8%.

Navbahor vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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