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Sogdiana vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Sogdiana

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Mash'al

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 70% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.8%1-17.6%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.9%2-19.4%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.7%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-18.5%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 76.9% 1.30 -14.7%

Draw 19.0% 22.7% 4.40 -9.8%

Away win 15.4% 12.5% 8.00 +13.9%

Over 2.5 61.8% 59.9% 1.67 +3.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.7% 2.46 -1.1%

BTTS 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.9% 1.39 -7.8%

Away O1.5 24.8% 22.2% 4.50 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogdiana2.5

Mash'al0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.44

MASH'AL · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

70%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sogdiana (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -14.7%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.8%

Mash'al (A) 15.4%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogdiana face Mash'al in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogdiana a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Mash'al 15%, so Sogdiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sogdiana and 0.9 for Mash'al (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogdiana are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.00 for Mash'al. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Sogdiana vs Mash'al Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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