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Olmaliq vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 14:00

Olmaliq

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Xorazm

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.0%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-111.5%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 64.5% 1.55 -18.2%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -5.8%

Away win 22.8% 20.8% 4.80 +5.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 48.5% 62.9% 1.59 -22.9%

Away O1.5 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0✓ 13.4%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olmaliq1.7

Xorazm0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLMALIQ · PPG 1.33

XORAZM · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Olmaliq (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -18.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.8%

Xorazm (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olmaliq face Xorazm in Uzbekistan - Super League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olmaliq a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Xorazm 23%, so Olmaliq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Olmaliq and 0.9 for Xorazm (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olmaliq are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.70 for Xorazm. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Olmaliq vs Xorazm Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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