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Mash'al vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 14:00

Mash'al

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Navbahor

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-118.9%0-216.3%0-39.3%0-4+5.9%1 1-05.4%1-19.2%1-27.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.9%2 2-01.3%2-12.3%2-21.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% 12.5% 8.00 +1.0%

Draw 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Away win 65.3% 76.9% 1.30 -15.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 55.6% 1.80 -19.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 33.7% 2.97 -13.0%

BTTS 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Home O1.5 28.6% 16.4% 6.10 +44.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.2% 1.51 -27.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob43.7%

A 65% / xG 0.5-1.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.9%

#2 0–2✓ 16.3%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mash'al0.5

Navbahor1.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MASH'AL · PPG 0.44

NAVBAHOR · PPG 1.89

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.23 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mash'al (H) 12.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +1.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Navbahor (A) 65.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mash'al face Navbahor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mash'al a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Navbahor 65%, so Navbahor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Mash'al and 1.7 for Navbahor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mash'al are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.89 for Navbahor. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +44.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Mash'al vs Navbahor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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