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Qizilqum vs Buxoro Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:15

Qizilqum

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

UPCOMING

Buxoro

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-114.2%0-28.7%0-33.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.8%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.0%2-16.2%2-23.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

Draw 27.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.8%

Away win 42.5% 40.0% 2.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Over 3.5 25.7% 27.9% 3.58 -4.8%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 38.8% 2.58 -20.5%

Away O1.5 36.8% 41.2% 2.43 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.9%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 14.2%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qizilqum0.9

Buxoro1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QIZILQUM · PPG 1.44

BUXORO · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qizilqum (H) 29.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.8%

Buxoro (A) 42.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qizilqum face Buxoro in Uzbekistan - Super League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qizilqum a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Buxoro 43%, so Buxoro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Qizilqum and 1.2 for Buxoro (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qizilqum are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for Buxoro. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Qizilqum vs Buxoro Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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