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Pakhtakor vs Andijan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:15

Pakhtakor

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

UPCOMING

Andijan

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.8%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.1%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 24.3% 22.7% 4.40 +4.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 48.1% 2.08 +4.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 32.5% 3.08 -7.0%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 44.6% 54.9% 1.82 -18.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.6% 3.16 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pakhtakor1.5

Andijan1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 1.90

ANDIJAN · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pakhtakor (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.9%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Andijan (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pakhtakor face Andijan in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pakhtakor a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Andijan 24%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pakhtakor and 1.0 for Andijan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pakhtakor are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.22 for Andijan. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.4%.

Pakhtakor vs Andijan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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