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Nasaf vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 20 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 14:00

Nasaf

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

UPCOMING

Neftchi

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-118.2%0-213.5%0-36.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.2%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.3%2-13.5%2-22.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.1% 27.8% 3.60 -25.2%

Draw 24.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.2%

Away win 59.4% 54.1% 1.85 +9.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 51.3% 1.95 -13.2%

Over 3.5 25.5% 32.5% 3.08 -12.9%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 30.5% 3.28 +1.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 51.8% 1.93 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.0%

A 59% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.2%

#2 0–2 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nasaf0.6

Neftchi1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NASAF · PPG 1.33

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.22

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nasaf (H) 16.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -25.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.2%

Neftchi (A) 59.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nasaf face Neftchi in Uzbekistan - Super League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nasaf a 16% chance, the draw 25% and Neftchi 59%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Nasaf and 1.5 for Neftchi (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nasaf are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.22 for Neftchi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.0%.

Nasaf vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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